Junebugred is golden in Smarty Jones
Horseracing Betting Lines
01/16/2012 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Junebugred, ridden by Joe Bravo, held on to win Monday's $100,000 Smarty Jones Stakes to begin Oaklawn Park's series for three-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby trail. The 6-1 third choice covered the mile distance in 1:38.45 on a fast track.
In the 12-horse field On Fire Baby, the lone filly to start, went off as the 3-2 favorite with Optimizer at 2-1.
Breaking from the gate first was Laurie's Rocket followed by No Spin, Jake Mo, Junebugred and On Fire Baby. Laurie's Rocket and No Spin battled on the front end up the backstretch and into the far turn.
On Fire Baby, with Joe Johnson riding, was four wide around the final turn with No Spin, Laurie's Rocket and Jake Mo to her inside. Junebugred had dropped back on the turn as 17-1 longshot Reckless Jerry came running on the outside.
At the top of the stretch Junebugred found room along the rail with Jake Mo, On Fire Baby, Laurie's Rocket and Reckless Jerry to his outside. Trained by Steve Hobby, Junebugred was able to take the lead in late stretch and hold off the late running Reckless Jerry.
Junebugred was able post a neck victory over Reckless Jerry with On Fire Baby finishing third. Holding on for fourth was Jake Mo followed by Laurie's Rocket, Optimizer, Copus, Prince Cheval, King Coral, No Spin, Fastestwhogetspaid and Hard Nosed.
Owned by Alex and Joann Lieblong, Junebugred was making just his third career start in the Smarty Jones. The win was worth $60,000 to bring the chestnut colt's earnings to $95,400.
The three-year-old made his debut last October at Monmouth Park when he finished third as the 13-10 favorite. Six weeks later he broke his maiden at Aqueduct at 8-1.
"We started him off and he showed us some talent," said Hobby about the colt. "His first time out he hadn't had any dirt in his face and he got to hopping and jumping around like a lot of first-time starters do. We went and sent him to David (trainer David Fawkes) in New York to give him a shot on the track up there."
Junebugred returned $14.80, $7.00 and $4.60. Reckless Jerry paid $12.80 and $6.20, and On Fire Baby paid $2.60 to show.
Next for three-year-olds is the $250,000 Southwest Stakes on Monday, February 20 followed by the $500,000 Rebel on March 17 and $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 14.
The Smarty Jones Stakes is named for the 2004 champion three-year-old colt who won the Arkansas Derby along with the Run for the Roses and Preakness Stakes. The stakes was won last year by eventual Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile champ Caleb's Posse.
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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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